On-chain BTC Analysis: Mince-Term Stockholders Losses Reach Historic Peak

In today’s on-chain analysis, BeInCrypto looks at indicators of BTC supply in rapport and loss in the hands of short- and long-term holders. It turns out that the majority of currencies traded are losing ground today, and indicators are in the lower regions of historical bear markets.

BTC gains and losses can be divided according to the length of time the investors hold them. In on-chain analysis, the threshold between bermuda and vaste term owners Supposed to be 155 days. If the currencies do not move during this time, then the statistical probability of their movement (selling) drops sharply. Coins become in the hands of long-term holders (LTHs).

On the other balle à la main, if currencies have moved (bought or sold) in less than 155 days, they are statistically more likely to move more. Therefore, they are considered coins in the hands of bermuda term holders (STHs).


According to data from glassCurrently, the terminé supply in the hands of long-term contract holders has reached a new all-time high (ATH) of 13.62 million bitcoins. The previous ATH of this benchmark was set in November 2021, at a time when Bitcoin was hitting the ATH of $69,000.

Source: Twitter

It is worth noting that the fact that long-term holders of coins were humanité their coins at the price of BTC, which later turned out to be the peak, is very unusual. In all previous market cycles – including the $64,850 high in April 2021 – the path to the BTC price peak has always been linked to a supply drop in the hands of LTHs.

A decrease in LTH supply is naturally associated with an increase in supply in the hands of STHs. During a bull market, long-term holders who bought bitcoin at a lower price in the past are selling their coins to short-term buyers. In contrast, during a bear market, STHs surrender and mostly resell their coins at a loss to LTHs. The supply of Bitcoin is back in the hands of its long-term holders jaguar again.

However, the Bitcoin price ATH in November 2021 had a different path. Mince-term holders – convinced that Bitcoin will soon reach higher prices – tour not to sell their coins. At the same time, there were no new people on the market who wanted to buy. Bitcoin has started a steady decline to this day, and most LTHs are left with their bags. They had to come to terms with the fact that their unrealized domination was eroding, and over time, it turned into an unrealized loss.

LTHs . Historical Loss Levels

In the chart below, we can see how the supply with losses in the hands of holders of long-term contracts increases exponentially. Currently, the chart has reached an area of ​​5 million BTC (red circle). This is the level that served as a benchmark for the absolute bottom of the BTC price in 2019 and 2020 (in pelouse).

Source: Twitter

There is another area, around 5.5 million BTC, which acted as resistance in 2015. At the time, although the price of BTC did not dip below the bottom it reached a few months ago, the losing supply in the hands of LTH only increased. steadily.

This happened bicause many short-term holders who bought during the downtrend became long-term holders after 155 days. Several months of masse left their coins at a loss, and LTHs became during that time.

If this scenario repeats itself now, BTC price will not need to dip below the June low of $17,600. A vaste enough buildup will make the losses of vaste term holders reach the next resistance area (red). On the other balle à la main, given the increased supply of BTC in dévolution due to the regular mining of new coins, it is not inexécutable that the curseur will soon reach a new ATH.

Supply and coins circulating in the hands of STHs

To get a complete picture of the losses in the Bitcoin market, there are two other indicators worth mentioning. The first is the percentage of terminé supply in rapport. It is currently at 48.71% and is in the pelouse from historical lows.

A chart for this indicator was posted on Twitter by Tweet embed, which stated that “more than 9.8 million coins are currently underwater”. It is easy to calculate that at this inventaire in the bear market, 51.29% of all Bitcoin in dévolution is losing.

It is worth noting that in previous BTC price lows, the bid-to-earning quotient was lower. At the beginning of 2019 it was 39% and in March 2020 it was 43%. This means that there is still plenty of room for potential declines.

Source: Twitter

In combination with this data, the supply scheme is in the hands of short-term holders. Currently, this indicator is also in the red from historical lows. However, we also see here that it is well above the lows reached in 2015 and in the summer 2021 progrès.

The bout is that short- and long-term stockholders may still suffer more losses. Interestingly, this is not necessarily related to a drop in the price of Bitcoin itself, but rather a cortège of a compatible long-term masse period.

Source: Twitter

Source: Twitterin order to[In]Latest Crypto Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis, click here.


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