Economic crisis, Covid-19 epidemic, Russia – Ukraine war, energy crisis, uncertainty of global balances, need for oil in the Eastern Mediterranean, Syria, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan etc. The problems have affected Turkey, which has not been able to move towards economic/democratic institutional sustainability. The AKP party and the CHP must deal with these problems with their partners.
As AK party politics became controversial, the main opposition party became the natural representative of the “alternative” and assumed responsibility for bringing the National Alliance to power.
The policy pursued by the CHP is to come to power by highlighting the errors and shortcomings caused by the AK party, by making the people believe that they will not make them.
The escalation of issues and the approach of elections have highlighted the need to investigate and assess voter trends in all aspects. MetroPOLL research (Özer Sencar), reliable in this area, has made statements measuring and evaluating the impact of the economic crisis on voter behavior.
THE EFFECT OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS ON ELECTIONS
MetroPOLL Research (Özer Sencar) explains the impact of the economic crisis on voter behavior through three fundamental factors. ” First; economic crisis and economic situation, the second; strong leader factor, third; political attitude and political polarization. The main determinant is the economy and the strong leader factor at a rate of 60% – 70%, others factors follow these two factors, he says.
He explains that he has been in economic crisis for 3-4 years, that there is a lack of income and unemployment, that the votes of the government fell below 3 Kazım 2002, that he reached 26% before that the undecided do not disperse, and only 34% with the proportional distribution of the undecided. He states that the AK party’s votes have been 24% to 26% for the past six months without an undecided dispersion, and have never fallen below 24%.
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has given Turkey a mediating role and power. This situation also revealed that the AKP party was able to increase its votes despite the bad economic factors.
“The CHP vote, before the undecided dispersed, has been zigzagging above and below the 20% axis since 2015. Despite the AK party’s 15% drop, there is no a lot of change in the CHP votes, so those who leave the AK party do not come to the CHP.
“The undecided have been between 22% and 27% for 3-4 years. Remarkably, there are no transitions to opposition parties from here. In fact, very dry. When an effective position and speech comes from Erdoğan, voters undecided on a few points turn to the AK party. In other words, we see 1-2 point voting moves. If the reconciliation between Russia and Ukraine is effective, the votes of the AK party could reach 35%. If relations with countries in Europe and the Middle East can be improved and the economy can be relieved, an election could be on the agenda.
“12.5% to 13% of the undecided public (23%) come from the AK party and the MHP. These voters have distanced themselves from the Ak Party, but they are closer to Erdogan. If the CHP and the other oppositions cannot attract this mass, a significant part of these people could vote for Erdoğan. “
“Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu has taken the unity of the 6 opposition parties well so far. We still don’t know how to better manage the post-election period. Erdogan hasn’t handled the economy well, but he can handle the election. The opposition needs more data-based studies. Erdogan has more rabbits in his hat. “
SOCIAL REALITY AND CHOICE
The next elections will be held with the determination of the Popular Alliance and the National Alliance will compete with the Popular Alliance.
Since the “presidential system”, which is claimed to be unique to Turkey, could not be removed from the controversial position, the construction of a democratic rule of law, which could center the separation of powers, checks and balances , and ensure economic democracy institutional sustainability, has been delayed.
In order to achieve the great democratic social transformation that the Popular Alliance failed to achieve, the National Alliance announced the common understanding of the consensus text for the transition to the strengthened parliamentary system.
The National Alliance will enter and participate in the elections to carry out its responsibilities within the framework of the presidential governance system in accordance with the laws in force, and if it wins the elections, it will perform within the framework of the Transition Agreement towards the strengthened parliamentary system.
Completion of the democratic rule of law by representing the great democratic social transformation that the social democratic dynamics expected and wanted, which the People’s Alliance failed to achieve.
Despite the fact that the Popular Alliance is drawn into a politics that favors its own alternative, the Unity Alliance of the Nation is unable to respond to the need for confidence in the management of the transition process and the realization of a democratic social transformation.
As the CHP is a traditional opposition party, it must face up to the alternative it had to adopt and its responsibilities of being the bearer of the National Alliance.
There is an alternative cultural accumulation that can discuss, evaluate and develop suggestions within the framework of the values of universal democracy, on the failure of the CHP to fulfill its position as carrier of alternatives and the positioning of the Alliance Nation as a partnership that can represent the great democratic social transformation and complete the construction of the democratic rule of law.
The CHP and the National Alliance should establish a relationship and interaction with democratic cultural accumulation that can contribute to the economic/democratic institutional sustainability of Turkey and the establishment of a democratic rule of law.